Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) Consultant

About the role

The Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN ESCWA) is seeking a consultant to develop and document a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), a semi-structural quarterly gap model used for short-term forecasting and policy simulation. The model will be calibrated to Jordan as the common application and replicated for Morocco, covering shocks such as food prices, oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates, remittances and fiscal shocks. The work is remote and expected to last about 2 months.

Key responsibilities

• Prepare an inception note confirming the model specification, data feasibility, deliverables and timetable.
• Build a QPM calibrated to Jordan and a reproducible baseline forecast, documenting the model structure, equations, data, calibration and solution; code must be written in Python using only free, open-source packages.
• Document how the framework is used in practice, covering the forecasting cycle, recording of judgment, policy simulations and model maintenance.
• Develop a practical learning guide based on worked examples, including the four required shock applications.
• Prepare a data inventory and a Python replication package so all outputs can be recreated.
• Address ESCWA's consolidated technical comments on each draft, run final replication checks and finalise the models for Jordan and Morocco and the technical guides.

Required profile

• Master's degree in economics, econometrics or a related field; a first-level degree plus two years of qualifying experience may be accepted in lieu.
• At least 15 years of professional experience in macroeconomic analysis, modelling and forecasting, including hands-on experience with Quarterly Projection Models or similar semi-structural models at a central bank, ministry of finance or international financial institution.
• Experience documenting macroeconomic models and preparing technical manuals and training materials for economists.
• Publication in reputed journals in the field.
• Fluency in English; Arabic is a working language of UN ESCWA.

Required skills

• Advanced Python for macroeconomic modelling, with documented and reproducible code.
• Desirable: experience with model-solution and forecasting toolkits (e.g., Dynare or Python equivalents) and version control.
• Desirable: knowledge of economic development issues of Arab countries, particularly Jordan.