Research Consultant: Lebanon Country Study – Return Implications for Host Economies

About the role

Prosper Global, working with UNDP under a UNDP and Prosper Global initiative funded by the Regional Development and Protection Program (RDPP), is running three country studies on the economic impact of Syrian refugee returns since December 2024 in Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. This consultancy covers the Lebanon study, examining how returns affect labor markets, consumer demand, local services and public finances. The closing date for applications is 20 November.

Key responsibilities

• Document how Syrians contribute to Lebanon's economy as workers, consumers and recipients of public services, by sector and location, and how this has changed since December 2024.
• Assess impacts on the labor market (vacancies, wage and labor cost effects, informality, supply chains and output).
• Assess impacts on consumer demand and local markets, including food, retail, housing and transport, and on cash assistance and remittances.
• Assess impacts on local services and public finances, including education, health, water, waste and electricity.
• Assess how businesses and donors are adjusting hiring, expansion, mechanization, relocation and financing plans.
• Develop country-level recommendations for policy dialogue on labor regulation, work permits, skills programs and service planning.
• Review existing studies on the economic impact of Syrian refugees and their return, and check data availability on labor, prices, rents, service use, aid flows and returns.
• Finalize the research design, including sampling, locations, sector selection, tools, workplan and risk mitigation, for approval before fieldwork.
• Analyze secondary data from labor force surveys, the Vulnerability Assessment of Syrian Refugees in Lebanon, WFP and REACH market monitoring, price and rent data, service-use data and UNHCR return data.
• Conduct at least 20 key informant interviews with employers, chambers of commerce, associations, municipalities, ministries, donors, banks and UN/NGO actors.
• Conduct at least two sector deep-dives (expected to cover agriculture and construction) and focus group discussions with host-community workers, remaining Syrians and employers, separated by gender where needed.
• Triangulate findings across sources, report them as associations unless the design and data support causal claims, and state where other factors such as the 2026 conflict and falling aid budgets affect the trends.